New UBC study finds global fisheries are at a risk of loosing close to $10 billion of their annual income by 2050, if climate change is left unchecked. According to the study the countries most dependent on fisheries for food will be the ones most effected.
In a previous study, UBC’s Institute for Oceans and Fisheries found the effects of climate change including rise in temperatures, changes in ocean salinity, acidity and oxygen levels will likely result in decreased catches.
“Developing countries most dependent on fisheries for food and revenue will be hardest hit,” said Vicky Lam, a postdoctoral fellow at UBC’s Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, and the study’s lead author. “It is necessary to implement better marine resource management plans to increase stock resilience to climate change.”
To compensate the financial losses of fishing under climate change and to improve food security, many communities are leaning toward aquaculture, also known as fish farming, as a solution. However, researchers found it may aggrevate the existing economic losses by further decreasing the price of seafood.
“Climate adaptation programs such as aquaculture development may be seen as a solution,” said William Cheung, associate professor at UBC’s Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries and a study co-author. “However, rather than easing the financial burden of fishing losses and improving food security, it may drive down the price of seafood, leading to further decreases in fisheries revenues.”
Co-author Rashid Sumaila, professor at UBC’s Institute for the Oceans and fisheries said global fisheries revenues add up to about $100 billion annually. Sumaila further added that their modelling shows that high emission scenario could result in an average 10 percent reduction in global fishing revenue, while a low emissions scenario could lead to a 7 percent decrease.
Scientists found the most vulnerable countries to be the ones that highly rely on fish including island countries like Tokelau, Cayman Islands and Tuvalu. However, many developed countries like Greenland and Iceland could see increase in revenues as fish migrate to colder waters.